On January 30, 2026, President Trump announced he intends to nominate Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve, with Powell’s Chair term ending May 15, 2026 (pending Senate confirmation).
While rates won’t change overnight, this nomination is still worth watching. Market outlook can shift quickly, and those changes can impact pricing and member decisions. As of January 28th, 2026, the Federal Open Market Committee held the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. But with this new nomination, buzz has already started about potential rate drops later in the year. As speculation continues, the market will react.
As the confirmation process plays out, the first changes usually show up in how people expect the Fed to move next and how they act as a result; In other words, sentiment moves first, pricing follows and member behavior isn’t far behind. In the near term, three things can move quickly: the expected timing of rate moves, shifts in longer-term pricing that affect loans and deposits and changes in member borrowing and saving behavior.
1) Rate Expectations and Timing
Markets react to signals about how future decisions may be made, especially the pace and timing of cuts or holds. Early commentary has focused on how Warsh might approach rate cuts alongside views on the Fed’s balance sheet.
2) The Yield Curve and Pricing Pressure
Credit unions may feel this through:
- Mortgage pricing (more tied to longer-term yields)
- Auto and personal loan demand (often more sensitive to near-term rate outlook)
- Deposit competition (as members rate-shop)
What Members May Notice
In the coming months, the most visible impacts could be:
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Changes in loan rates and refinance opportunities
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Shifts in savings/share rates
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More headlines that affect confidence and decision-making
What Credit Union Leaders Should Watch in the Next 60–90 Days
A practical watchlist includes:
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Confirmation timeline and tone (uncertainty can delay decisions and increase volatility)
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Deposit pricing vs. margin pressure (if deposit costs stay sticky while loan yields soften, margin compresses)
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Demand pockets (bursts in auto refi, HELOC inquiries and consolidation activity)
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Early risk signals (the sooner you spot emerging stress, the more options you have to support members)
The Opportunity: Relevance Wins When Rates Are Uncertain
Members don’t need more messages; they need the right message at the right moment. Credit unions can stand out by understanding member needs at the individual level and responding with relevance. Member segmentation and personalization campaigns can increase impact in moments like these, as they allow you to understand and respond to member needs.
How Rise Analytics Helps Credit Unions Lead With Member Understanding
Rise Analytics helps credit unions get more specific about who needs what, and when. That’s how you protect the member experience while still driving growth. We provide a variety of powerful solutions designed to help your credit union understand and meet members’ needs in a proactive manner, rather than a reactive one. As market outlook begins to shift, here are some solutions that may be especially powerful:
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Predictive Analytics can identify members most likely to refinance, consolidate, draw on a HELOC or open a new product, so outreach is focused and timely.
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Loan Portfolio Analytics can surface shifts before they show up in headline numbers, including concentration pockets, mix changes, early performance signals and sensitivity to rate movement, so leadership can act sooner.
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And when timing matters most, predictive models help align outreach to the moments members are most likely to act, reducing campaign fatigue from generic blasts.
A Quick Regulatory Reminder
This is also a good moment to reinforce balance sheet discipline and risk planning. The NCUA’s 2026 Supervisory Priorities outline areas of focus intended to help credit unions plan for the year ahead. Rise Analytics also offers Regulatory Analytics solutions, such as CECL and HMDA Compliance Solutions, Fair Lending Monitoring and more.
Closing Thought
A Fed Chair nomination is significant, but the near-term impact is usually how the outlook shifts and how that flows into pricing and member decisions. Credit unions that pair strong balance sheet management with deeper member insight will be best positioned to support members and grow relationships, regardless of what comes next. Reach out to Rise Analytics today to learn more about how we can help you meet the challenges in the coming quarters.
